Tuesday, March 26, 2013

Weather Report for the Nation

Helena Talbot has a real estate blog that I like to read on occasion.  One reason.  Common sense.  She has it.

But I have to be careful.  I trust her information because she's obviously a real professional.  But she markets real estate in Loudoun County in northern Virginia, and what she writes sometimes will have nothing to do with what's going on in Boulder County, Colorado.

One of her latest blogs is about one of the most common sense ideas I've ever seen, and about which I've written many times over the years.  Simply put, you cannot write one weather report for the nation.

Ms. Talbot points out that all real estate value is local, and that watching the national trends from any source will be misleading nearly every time.  The home sales market (right along with the weather) will be different in the next state, next county, adjacent town or large subdivision just out of town, in fact, the next block.  I've seen time after time a perfectly good home sit on the market at a good price and in good condition, while homes are selling two blocks to the north.  Who can explain it? 

The Takeaway here is to consult with a very good professional person, somebody who's willing to do the research on a very local level.  If you don't see it all on your kitchen table, he or she didn't do it.  Look at the trending in your neighborhood over the past year, six months, three months, and two weeks.  Review the absorption rates (how many homes are selling each month, compared to how many are on the market now) to determine how long they'd all take to sell if no one else entered the market.  Are values trending up or down?  How much?  What have the successful sellers been doing to make it happen for them?

As a Seller, you're about ready to hire a broker to manage the marketing and sale of a tremendous asset, and your money, your time and your levels of stress will be impacted significantly by both the process and the outcome. 

Fact is, the weather in New York City on rare occasions will be about the same as Miami.  Very rare occasions.  Very, very rare.  And when it happens, it's sheer coincidence. 

I like making informed decisions.  Things just turn out better when I do.  Meanwhile, I'll continue to peruse the markets around the country, noting that some of it relates nicely to us here in the Boulder area, and some is just for comparison.

Call me as you need.  I'm always here for you.

Enjoy the day,
Mike Moger
Wright Kingdom Real Estate
303.541.1920 office
303.859.4467 mobile
mmoger@wkre.com
www.MikeMoger.com

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Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Boulder is in the Black

What's your home worth?  Everybody wants to know.

Fact is, the only way to find out is to invite me over -- and I'm happy to do this all for free -- and show me what you have in your home currently, and let me compare it to the marketplace.

Short of that, there are the Appreciation Charts, which are available on the Internet to anyone interested.

If you remember buying your home, these charts will give you an arithmetically valid way to value what you have now.  Just start with the purchase price of your home when you bought it, and multiply it by the yearly increases or decreases in value in your community.  Your arithmetic exercise may come close to real value.

I said you may come close.  For curiosity, this is a fun game.  If you're planning to sell, don't even consider this as valid. 

But for fun, let's do the math.  The following is the current chart for the MSA (metropolitan statistical area) the federal government calls "Boulder". 

 

If you bought your home in late 2000, just multiply the average increase in 2001, then 2002, etc. until you come to today.

And again, this may be close and it may not.  I've always said that you can't write a weather report for the whole nation.  Real estate is the same way.  It may be increasing significantly three blocks north of you, and your neighborhood remains motionless.  The good news is that the following year may be the opposite.

Lesson to take away -- Call me.  I'm happy to stop by.  As long as you're curious, you may as well get the accurate truth.

I'm always here for you.

Enjoy the day,
Mike Moger
Wright Kingdom Real Estate
303.541.1920 office
303.859.4467 mobile
mmoger@wkre.com
www.MikeMoger.com